Effect of Pandemic on Seasonal Hiring Yet to Be Seen

Adding to the list of uncertainties surrounding the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, experts say it’s too early to tell how severely seasonal hiring will be impacted by the virus, as long-struggling businesses hope that a seasonal bump in revenue will help to counteract months of losses.

Pasadena’s unemployment rate steadily decreased to 12.1 percent in September after slowly but steadily dropping since peaking at 17 percent in April and May, according to data provided by YCharts. The local unemployment rate in September 2019 was 3.7  percent.

Los Angeles County’s unemployment rate in September was 15.1 percent, compared with 11 percent at the state level and 7.9 percent nationally, according to state and federal statistics.

While the pandemic was expected to weaken the economic boost of the holiday season, UCLA Anderson School of Management Adjunct Professor of Economics and Anderson Forecast Director Jerry Nickelsburg said the extent remains to be seen.

“Typically, seasonal hiring is smoothed out with seasonal adjustment. So the question is, will there be more hiring or less hiring than usual in Pasadena this and next month?” he asked.

“Since hiring is related to visitation to brick and mortar stores and restaurants to eat while they are shopping, we would expect less than usual hiring and therefore a smaller impact on employment,” he said. “Unemployment is measured by the domicile of the person, employment by the domicile of the business. So, for Pasadena, they are going to be somewhat different as there are many commuters into Pasadena.”

Pasadenans can help the situation by doing their holiday shopping at local businesses, whether in-person or online, according to Eric Duyshart, who serves as division manager for the Pasadena Economic Development Team.

“This year, more than ever, Pasadena’s local and independent retailers need the support of the community,” Duyshart said. “Many brick and mortar businesses have been hit especially hard by the pandemic. With many retailers and restaurants having to pivot to online orders and takeout during most of 2020, the holiday shopping season has become an even more critical time for these businesses.”

The city planned to roll out a campaign to encourage local shopping over the coming week, according to Duyshart.

But safety, he said, remains paramount.

“We need to protect the health of our community, shoppers are highly encouraged to follow the 3 Ws when venturing out to support our local businesses:  Wear a face covering, wash your hands and watch your distance from others.”

Pasadena Convention Center & Visitors Bureau Executive Director Jeanne Goldschmidt echoed the call for locals to support the neighbors.

“Our local shops, restaurants, hotels and attractions set us apart as a charming and vibrant destination,” Goldschmidt said. “This year, more than ever, Pasadena local retailers need the support of our community to survive. We are working closely with the city of Pasadena to promote a ‘Shop Pasadena’ campaign and encourage the community to shop small and dine local.”

Businesses, themselves, have been making adjustments to be better positioned to weather the current economic storm, Pasadena Chamber of Commerce President Paul Little said.

“Consumers are still concerned about infection and relying more and more on online sales,” Little said. “The hope is that local retailers, and basically any retailer in the area, have and will be able to make a shift to online sales and delivery.”

Little cited Vroman’s Bookstore, where management has recently said the store had to hire extra staff to help process orders after appealing to the public in September as it loomed on the brink of closure. 

But not all businesses can operate in such a manner.

“Unemployment in California, in L.A. and in Pasadena remains higher than the rest of the country because we’re so heavily dependent on hospitality, for one, and other industries that have been really hard hit. I don’t see a huge increase in employment in the hospitality industry anytime until probably well into 2021 at this point,” Little said.

“I want to be optimistic, but it really remains to be seen,” said Little. “I’m noticing more and more empty storefronts as I walk the dog around downtown, and that’s a challenge. Hopefully, the holiday sales will be what they generally are for our retailers, which is the boost that may get some into the next year and beyond.”

Pasadena Vice Mayor Tyron Hampton said he, too, was encouraged by the community’s support of Vroman’s Bookstore and hoped to see it continue throughout the city.

“Pasadena has really shown up for Vroman’s,” Hampton said.  “Let’s be real: They’re not out of the hole, but that is positive. That’s really good to hear.”

With respect to seasonal jobs, “I don’t assume it will be the same seasonal hiring that it was pre-COVID. But I do believe that companies, because of the demand, will have to hire more people, which is going to be a really good thing for our local economy,” Hampton said. “That’s why it’s important to buy and shop local anywhere and any time you can.”

Hampton said that while being cautious in the face of the pandemic is important, “ just because you have the option of buying everything on Amazon, that doesn’t mean that you should buy everything on Amazon,” he said, adding that many local businesses offer online shopping, as well. “You should actually patronize your local businesses, especially if you want your local businesses to still be there.”