State Surge in COVID-19 Cases Could Block Pasadena From Escaping Restrictive State Guidelines

A surge in coronavirus cases could further block plans to open Pasadena schools and businesses as cities statewide begin trending backward from less restrictive tiers to more restrictive rankings.

Based largely on case numbers and testing-positivity rates, counties in California are classified into one of four tiers in the state’s reopening chart, which guides the ability of businesses to reopen. The state updates the classifications weekly.

On Tuesday, the state hit a grim milestone. For the first time since the tier system was implemented, no counties advanced to a less-restrictive level. Three counties, including San Diego County, regressed to the most-restrictive “purple” tier from the less-onerous “red” level.

Five other counties moved backward from the “orange” level into the “red” tier, while three others slipped out of the least-restrictive “yellow” level and back into the “orange” tier.

Because Pasadena is in Los Angeles County, it has been mired in the most restrictive “purple” level since the tier system was implemented. For one week, it met the threshold to advance to the “red” tier, but counties must meet the guidelines for two consecutive weeks to move up the ladder, and Los Angeles County couldn’t maintain the needed statistics.

“The trendline has to change, and move in the other direction in order for us to make progress towards the other tier,” Pasadena Public Health Director Dr. Ying-Ying Goh told the City Council on Monday. “I hope every day we can move in that direction, but it requires the cooperation and actions of everybody in L.A. County.”

Under the purple tier, no public or private school can reopen for in-person instruction unless they receive a waiver for students for elementary schools. Counties that move to the red tier can reopen for instruction if they remain in that tier for 14 days. Counties can have stricter rules, but cannot be more lenient.
Goh said she did not expect the county to move to the red tier in the next few weeks.

Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer echoed Goh in an update to the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday.

Ferrer noted that the increases will stall hopes of moving out of the most restrictive purple tier of the state’s matrix.

“The earliest we would see this county move to Tier 2 would be four weeks from now, and that’s if every single person gets back to helping us slow the spread (of the virus),” Ferrer said.

Dr. Mark Ghaly, the state’s Health and Human Services secretary, said rising case numbers statewide mean the situation will likely be even worse next week.

“As we look forward to next week and we see which counties may have missed their current tier threshold this week, we anticipate if things stay the way they are, that between this week and next week over half of California counties will have moved into a more restrictive tier,” Ghaly said. “And so that certainly is an indication that we’re concerned and that we have to keep a close watch on what’s happening.”

Regressing in the tier system means tighter restrictions on businesses and other activities. Moving backward from the red to purple tier means restaurants can no longer offer any indoor dining.

The county is now in a “real and alarming” surge in COVID-19 cases, with case numbers exceeding 2,000 for five of the last six days, including about 4,600 confirmed cases over the weekend. Health officials have been blaming public and private gatherings for the surge, and they fear the upcoming winter holidays could exacerbate the problem.

“If we don’t slow the spread now, we’re heading into a very unfortunate holiday season,” Ferrer told the Board of Supervisors Tuesday, urging all residents to recommit to basic infection-control methods, such as wearing face masks and practicing physical distancing.

Ghaly repeated that message on a state level Tuesday, acknowledging that residents are suffering from “COVID fatigue.”

“We know that this is hard,” Ghaly said. “We know many people feel exhausted, they feel isolated and they’re impatient. We talked last week quite a bit about COVID fatigue. I even talk about COVID resentment. We know that this is hard work, but we must do more.”