Guest Opinion | Hoyt Hillsman: Post-Election Scenarios

Election Day 2020: The Sequel(s) 

Possible results of an election nightmare

With President Trump clearly indicating that he will contest the election, it is important to consider the possible post-election scenarios for the weeks and even months following Election Day. The Transition Integrity Project, a bipartisan group, has conducted a series of “war games” with over 100 experts and former officials from government, politics and the media that developed a number of post-election scenarios. While these kinds of simulation games are not necessarily predictive, they can be very useful in planning for different outcomes. Here is a rough summary of several of the Transition Integrity Project’s scenarios:

A Close Outcome

For several weeks after the election, the outcome is uncertain, with several votes reporting incomplete or contested results.   The Trump campaign declares victory immediately, calls on vote counting to end, and instructs the Justice Department to deploy federal agents to “secure the vote.” The Biden campaign calls on its allies and the public to denounce this effort and to conduct peaceful protests. Trump orders the National Guard into the contested states to contain the protests. After several weeks, the counts are finalized in several states, although one (Michigan or Pennsylvania?) remains contested and is determinative of the final count. In that state, a rogue group or individual manages to destroy a large number of ballots to swing the vote count to Trump. However, the Democratic governor of the state certifies the election for Biden. When the Michigan Biden electors go to Congress, they are rejected by Vice-President Pence, who presides over the Senate, and there are dual claims to the White House on January 21.

A Narrow Biden Victory

From election night onward, it is evident that Biden has won a clear if narrow victory in the Electoral College. The Trump campaign will convince several of the swing states controlled by Republicans to submit an alternate slate of electors. The Trump campaign will also continue to contest the vote counts and will spread false rumors, including that Biden has had a heart attack.  Broad public protests from both sides give Trump an excuse to send in troops. Republican operatives publish names and addresses of Biden electors in an attempt to intimidate them. When it is apparent that Trump will refuse to leave, the Joint Chiefs formulate a plan to remove him, which is controversial but ultimately successful.

A Narrow Trump Victory

While it is highly unlikely that Trump will win the popular vote, he could squeak out a victory in the Electoral College. There would be widespread street protests along with Trump’s threats to send in troops. The Biden campaign would likely push to send a separate set of electors from contested states. A constitutional crisis could ensue with the House of Representatives certifying Biden’s election and Pence and the GOP certifying Trump’s. A petition to abolish the Electoral College and admit D.C. and Puerto Rico as states could move forward in the Congress. Trump might actually support a number of these moves in order to divide the left.

A Clear Biden Victory

This is a simpler, more clear-cut scenario. While the Trump campaign will continue to claim voter fraud, most GOP officials will not support further contesting the election. Trump will pardon his allies and family members. Ironically, he might also “pardon” Hillary Clinton and Hunter Biden for their “crimes.”

No More “Election Night”

One thing is abundantly clear from the exercises of the Transition Integrity Project – there is no more “election night.”  More like an election nightmare.

Hoyt Hilsman is an author, former PCC Trustee and Chair of the United Democratic Headquarters. Any views expressed herein are his alone and do not represent those of any organization.